Comerica’s Economic Activity Index for CA Unpromising

Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index was flat in November, unchanged at a level of 105. Up to this year, the Index has averaged a level of 104, up five points from the average for all of 2009. October’s reading was revised from 104 to a level of 105.

The California Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100.

Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, said “Our Index’s November reading reinforced the unimpressive pattern of recovery in California over the course of 2010.”

“The state’s recovery in 2010 has been uneven and inconsistent across sectors, creating choppiness in our Index. Looking ahead, California should make modest gains in 2011 against a background of a gradually accelerating national economy” – a silver lining for a darkened economy.